AFC Asian Cup 2023 – Does India Stand a Chance?

The Group Stages Draw of the 2023 AFC Asian Cup took place on 11th May in the Katara Opera House in Doha, the capital city of the tiny gulf nation that will host the upcoming edition of Asia’s pioneer national team competition – Qatar. India will be “Appearing for its Fifth Time” in the AFC Asian Cup.

From the draw on the 11th it was found that India (102nd) has been grouped along with Syria (91st), Uzbekistan (68th), and Australia (25th) in Group B of the upcoming edition of the 2023 AFC Asian Cup set to take place in Qatar between the 12th of January 2024, and the 10th of February 2024.

Why was India placed in the “Group Of Death”?

Well to answer that question we will have to understand how the mechanism works. All 24 qualified teams (directly from joint qualifiers or through the Asian Cup qualifiers) were divided into four pots of six teams each as can be seen in the tweet below. The team was placed in each pot based on their ranking in the last FIFA Ranking Update. India’s ranking raised from 106 to 101 in the update in May.

However, it was not enough to give the Blue Tigers a place in the Pot 3. Lebanon, the last team in Pot 3 is presently ranked 99th in the world. Thus India had to overtake them to increase their chance of getting an easier draw in the 2023 AFC Asian Cup in Qatar, but they failed in their attempt to do so.

However, the All India Football Federation has learned from it and is desperate to get into pot 2 of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers draw which is set to take place on 25th July. The Blue Tigers are once again the first team in Pot 3 and will look to overtake Lebanon for a place in the second pot. Both sides will be in action in the same tournament next month – Hero Intercontinental Cup and SAFF Championship.

Not just that, Luck played a big part in India getting a tricky group as well. For instance, among all the Pot 4 teams – Tajikistan, Malaysia, Thailand, and Hong Kong got a comparatively easier group than India. Whereas, Indonesia suffered the same fate as India in being placed in a “group of death”.

About the hosts – How in Qatar, and not in China?

The Tournament was initially supposed to be hosted by China PR as they had won the bid on 4 June 2019. But, amid the rising cases of the COVID-19 Pandemic even in 2022, government officials from Beijing and the Chinese Football Association collectively decided to give up on their hosting rights.

Despite investing heavily in Infrastructure such as building numerous World Cup-level stadiums from scratch, it was called off due to health concerns, and then and there the Asian Football Confederation had put up new bidding openings for the rights to host the upcoming edition of the tournament.

The Aian Football Confederation conducted a second round of bidding, with a deadline for submissions scheduled on 17 October 2022. Despite interest from several nations, only four nations had submitted official bids: Australia, Indonesia, Qatar, and South Korea. On 17 October 2022, the AFC had officially announced that Qatar won the bid and will host the tournament. Qatar grabbed the opportunity with open arms as they had everything in place already to host a mega sporting event like the AFC Asian Cup, having hosted the FIFA World Cup 2022 successfully in a grand manner at the end of last year.

Past Record of the Blue Tigers

Out of the previous four appearances, the Blue Tigers were eliminated from the group stages three times, from Indonesia in 1984, Qatar in 2011, and UAE in 2019. Meanwhile, its best-ever finish so far was in the 1964 edition when they had finished as the runner-up to tournament hosts and then-AFC member association Israel. Although it was contested by four teams as 11 nations had withdrawn.

1) Performance Statistics Of India’s All Previous Appearances

2) Comparison of India’s Record with its Group Stage Opponents

As of present India stand 19th in terms of overall performance in the competition. Having played in 13 matches so far the Blue Tigers have got only 3 wins and one draw, while the other 9 matches ended in a defeat. In total, the team has scored 12 goals and conceded 27 goals.

Whereas if we compare them in terms of the overall tally with their group stage opponents in the AFC Asian Cup in Qatar, we will see that Syria is ranked 15th, while Australia and Uzbekistan are ranked in the 11th and 10th spot respectively in that same list. Here is a comparison table of the same above.

All-Time Head To Head Records

The (H2H) is an efficient way to compare teams in football. The head-to-head records are snapshots of the historical encounters between the two respective teams across all competitions they played. 

They can reveal key trends and expose team superiority. With that sort of information, you’ll have a clearer idea of what to expect when next the teams meet. Although the information that is available is largely limited to the win, draw, and loss record and which team has won more encounters than the other, they say a lot about the momentum and psychological dominance of one team over another.

We glance at the head-to-head record of the Blue Tigers against their 2023 AFC Asian Cup Group Stage opponents Syria, Uzbekistan, and Australia respectively from the above-shown table. The use of head-to-head records when analyzed along with the team’s form, discipline, tactics, and injuries, then it is very useful and can provide a more detailed picture of what to expect from future games.

Analysis of National Team Players and Coaches

Having players playing regularly in foreign leagues always benefit the national team in performing well as it gives you the exposure of facing all top-quality players in full of competitiveness games, where you have to fight and perform consistently to secure your place in the team’s starting XI.

Unfortunately, the Indian players don’t usually get to play in the leagues outside the subcontinent (PS: There are some players playing in Nepal and Bhutan), and it makes things difficult for them when playing in International matches, as the intensity of the game, and time you can have the ball to decide your next move is not the same in domestic leagues in India and the leagues abroad.

A) Demographics of National Team Players Playing Called up in the Last One Year

As you can see from the above table, the opponents of India have a clear edge over the Blue Tigers. But again even Saudi Arabia and Qatar have the majority or all of their national team players playing in the local leagues. So does that really matter? Yes, it does matter a lot because the league level of Middle Eastern Countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or even the UAE is far superior to that of the ISL.

There are two ways of enhancing the performance of the national team – “either you ask your players to ply their trades abroad” or you “simply increase the overall quality of your domestic leagues” by bringing top-quality foreign players and coaches who will rise the standard of the matches and also help the local players improve with a healthy competition for places in the team’s starting lineup.

B) Managerial Record of All Four Group B Team Coaches

The above table shows the managerial record comparison of the coaches of all four teams that are part of Group B. India’s head coach Igor Stimac ranks last in terms of win percentage. While Graham Arnold of Australia and Uzbekistan’s Srečko Katanec both boast a win percentage record of over 60%. Recently appointed Syria coach Hector Cuper has a good record but he was in charge of a few games.

Rival Watch of India’s Opponents

Let’s have a peek at the opponent of team India in the Group Stage of the AFC Asian Cup in Qatar. And also have a detailed report about their current affairs, strengths, and key players in their team.

Australia National Team – Champions (2015)

Australia has been regularly featured in the FIFA World Cup, the 2022 edition was their 6th appearance in the global event. The Socceroos who are ranked 25th in the world have even made it to the Knockout Stages (Round of 16 – “Their best result so far alongside the 2002 edition”) in the last edition but eventually lost out to Champions Argentina. The best thing about their campaign was that they managed to score a goal each against both the World Cup finalists France and Argentina.

Australia even defeated Denmark, and Tunisia by a 1-0 goal margin. They recently won over Ecuador and are all set to face Argentina and England in friendlies ahead of the Asian Cup. The 2015 Asian Cup Champions are desperate to perform well in the upcoming edition and have a team of talented individuals with a mix of youth and experience. It will certainly be a very difficult outing against them.

Uzbekistan National Team – 4th Place Finish (2011)

Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is also a very strong team and has been getting promising results in the friendly matches they played in the recent couple of years against nations that have appeared in the world cups. The 68th-ranked Central Asian Nation has some top young players coming up through their ranks which can be found by the fact that they finished as runners-up in the U-23 Asian Cup last year, and won the U-20 Asian Cup both of which were hosted by them. Their U-17 team will be facing the India U-17 team in the U-17 Asian Cup Group Stage that will take place in Thailand next month.

Goal Machine Eldor Shomurodov who plays in Serie A side Spezia on loan from AS Roma will be one of the big threats to India along with Cristiano Ronaldo’s teammate at Al-Nassr Jaloliddin Masharipov, and Otabek Shukurov who plays for Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkish Super League. There are some other players as well whom the Blue Tigers should keep an eye on if they want to get a good result.

Syria National Team – Group Stages (6 Times)

91st Ranked Syria is the last team in group B. They had even qualified for the 4th round of the AFC Qualifiers for the 2018 FIFA World Cup and lost out to Australia who later on qualified by winning in the Inter-Zonal Playoffs game. Although they have never gone beyond the group stages, the Syrians shouldn’t be taken lightly at all as they have some top-quality players who can be a threat to India.

The last time India faced the war-torn nation was in the 2019 Intercontinental Cup. The match ended in a 1-1 draw but Syria was missing many of its first-team players such as Omar Khribin, Omar Al Somah, and Mahmoud Al Mawas. There were many other regulars who didn’t feature, thus the game in Asian Cup will certainly be a difficult one, and India will be looking up to keep their hopes alive.

How did the coach and players react to the draw?

As head coach Igor Stimac rightfully said that it will be three tough encounters against Australia, Syria, and Uzbekistan, but the team will be prepared to give them a fight for the points. Last time out India comparatively got an easier draw as they were placed in Pot 2, the Blue Tigers had hosts UAE, Bahrain and Thailand. India was a couple of minutes away from securing their place in the knockout stage, but a late penalty conceded against Bahraun which they scored to break the hearts of Indians.

“There are no easy groups. We are excited about what is coming up in January and we hope we can be ready by then to put up a good fight against every team in our group. It is still too early to say what we can do because we have so many months to prepare for it. We have a number of friendlies and competitions lined up to get ready for the championship. Hopefully, all the players will be fit ahead of time. Most importantly, I hope all the players enjoy their experience at the tournament.” 

AIFF General Secretary Mr. Shaji Prabhakaran tweeted: “At this level, we have to always expect we will face strong teams. When we play stronger teams we will become stronger and we will prepare harder to put up encouraging performances. In Qatar World Cup 2022 we witnessed how Asian sides caused a few upsets by beating the giants of the game. We are inspired by them to do well.”

National team fullback Pritam Kotal feels it will be a good test for the team in the 2023 AFC Asian Cup, and the players and staff are confident that India can go on to qualify for the knockout stages.

Our Verdict – ‘ Very Difficult‘ but ‘ Not Impossible‘

Indeed team India has been placed in a difficult group full of strong teams. With heavyweight teams such as Australia, and Uzbekistan in the Group, they are the likely favorites to go through as the top two teams from Group B. Meanwhile, India would look to fight with the Syrians for a win and hope for a draw against the Uzbeks. It will be too much to expect any great results against the Mighty Aussies.

As you can see from the above post, three teams out of the four best third-placed teams went to the knockout stages of the last edition with just three points. Meaning that there will still be a chance for the Blue Tigers to progress into the Round of 16 if they can manage to defeat the Syrians which is not unimaginable if they play well as a unit by defending properly and converting their chances in attack.

It will indeed be a very difficult contest against the Uzbeks and Aussies, as they are far superior to us. But football is a beautiful game, as every other day we get to see some miracles happening with small teams upsetting the big and mighty teams. Even in the past, the India team has got some positive results against higher-ranked oppositions like 0-0 draws against the Asian Champions Qatar in Doha, or even the draw against China in Suzhou in a friendly game ahead of the 2019 AFC Asian Cup, UAE.

If the Blue Tigers can be defensively compact and play like an organized and balanced team with a well-planned strategy for the Uzbekistan and Australia tests then it won’t be too much to believe why they can’t get another (1) point or in the best case three points from those two remaining fixtures. The four (4) points will be more than enough to finish among the joint four best third-place teams.

And getting two wins somehow will help the Blue Tigers qualify by being among the two best-ranked teams from Group B. But still, it will be a very complicated task and not all easy for the Indian team.

Preparation Ahead Of The Asian Cup!

As you will understand from the below chart, if we combine the total number of possible matches that India might play assuming that it makes it to the final of the cup tournament then the total number of matches stands at an astonishing 17 matches. A massive number of games are ahead for the Blue Tigers across the next seven months leading to the 2023 AFC Asian Cup in Qatar from January 2024.

It will be a good test for the team to see where they stand at the moment as they keep gelling up themselves for their Asian Cup campaign from January next year. Coach Igor Stimac was often seen unhappy and complaining about the time he had to fit his ideology in the team during the national team camps. But, this time he won’t find any excuses as the national team’s committee and the All India Football Federation has decided to grant him as much as time possible to work on the team.

With the Durand Cup starting at the end of July, and the Indian Super League at the beginning of September, there will be a lot of breaks in between the season for the national team to go and take part in all the invitational tournaments in the ASEAN zone. With the AFC Round 2 Quaifiers of the 2026 FIFA World Cup also in the fray from November, it will make the situation even better for the Indian national team as they will be getting more time to train and spend time building a good bond.

Also, it was reported that the ISL will be halting in the middle of December to give some more added time to the national team’s preparation. Thus there as well the team will get around 27 days almost a month’s time to conclude their final rehearsals ahead of commencing their 2023 Asian Cup campaign against the Aussies on the 13th of January in Ahmed Bin Ali Stadium of Al Rayyan SC in Doha, Qatar.

Playing for Sunil Chhetri in his last Asian Cup Campaign

Every good time comes to a close. And a player’s international career is very short at a maximum of around 15 years. But, for our legend and captain Sunil Chhetri, the scenario is different from that of everyone else, having served the nation for over 17 years to date and scored over 85 goals in the tenure he has served for the national team wearing the blue strip in both the difficult and good times.

It feels really uncomfortable to write this, and I am sure it will be the same while reading it for our viewers but the harsh truth is by the time the Asian Cup kicks off, our legend will turn 39 years. And, to imagine him to still playing for the Indian team in the next edition – the 2027 Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia at the senior age of 42 years will be nothing less than thinking like a foolish or idiotic person.

Thus it won’t be wrong to say that the upcoming Asian Cup will be his final chapter where he will take the field for team India as a player (who knows we might see him leading us again as a head coach in the future) and he himself admitted it as well during an interview with a famed publication last year.

For that reason, he deserves a great farewell in his final Asian adventure. And his teammates will be quite aware of it and all of them will be longing to give their all, and push their performance levels to combinedly achieve a great and unimaginable result (like going beyond the group stage or reaching the quarterfinals stage – which will guarantee Igor Stimac an automatic renewal as per the clause).

If the above-mentioned thing or even the closest to it can be achieved by India then it will certainly be something that will be memorized forever not just in Indian Football history or in Sunil Chhetri’s legendary and illustrious career but will raise the bar of perception most of the foreigners have about the sport in our country. It will possibly also open the doorways for increased government support.

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